Note: All stats are as of March 7.
And just like that, March has arrived. The Blue Devils are almost through with their conference play battles — just a road trip to Chapel Hill and the ACC Tournament remain before they take to the national stage and compete for a sixth national title.
With the tournament rapidly approaching, where does Duke stand relative to the rest of the field? The Blue Devils’ 18-1 record, bolstered by a four-game streak of 30-plus point wins, stands alone atop the ACC standings. Record alone at this point in the season does not tell the full story of a team. To better understand the 2024-25 Blue Devils, as well as the remainder of the NCAA Tournament field, let’s dive into the team sheet and all the metrics utilized by the tournament’s selection committee to build a field of 68. For a reminder of how the metrics are calculated and what they represent, check out this article.
Duke’s historic season
From an analytics perspective, Duke is in a league of its own. It holds the No. 1 spot in KenPom and its +39.37 adjusted efficiency margin is the second best since 1997, trailing only the 1999 Blue Devils. Such a historic KenPom season places this year’s Blue Devils in a prime position to earn a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday.
Since February, Duke has seen a notable jump on the offensive side of the ball. It still falls shy of Auburn, the projected No. 1 overall seed, but now holds the No. 2 offensive efficiency while also boasting one of the league’s stingiest defenses — it sits No. 4 in defensive efficiency. Auburn trails Duke with its +36.47 adjusted efficiency margin, good for second. BartTorvik’s T-Rank, the selection committee’s other primary efficiency-based metric, also places the Blue Devils at the top of the ladder based on their nation-leading projected 98.14% chance of beating an average Division I team. Houston, another projected No. 1 seed, is the No. 2 team in T-Rank.
The Blue Devils’ surge across the array of efficiency-oriented metrics is primarily motivated by their 43-point blowout over Illinois — a team with a respectable No. 16 standing in the NET rankings. Having followed this performance up with a 37-point win over Miami, a 35-point win over Florida State and a 33-point win over Wake Forest, it’s easy to see why the analytics love Duke. It has demonstrated the ability to score 90-plus points consistently — all while finding efficient marks from the field. Over this four-game stretch, the Blue Devils shot 50.4% from the field and 41.9% from deep. They have also climbed up to fourth in the nation in effective field-goal percentage, boasting a 57.6% figure, according to BartTorvik.
Additionally, Duke now holds the No. 1 spot in the NCAA NET rankings and ESPN’s BPI. The Blue Devils’ case for a No. 1 seed looks rock solid, and the chances of placement in the East Region where they can play in the favorable environments of Raleigh and Newark, N.J., look particularly high. That’s not to say, however, that Duke’s team sheet looks perfect. In particular, it still lacks in the resume-oriented metrics because of the ACC’s perceived weakness.
The Blue Devils are down at sixth in wins above the bubble (WAB) and have just six Quad 1 wins after losing at Clemson. For reference, there are 18 teams with seven or more Quad 1 wins. Given the extent of Duke’s dominance in the predictive metrics like KenPom and Torvik, it is hard to see a lack of Quad 1 opportunities leaving too much of a stain come Selection Sunday. However, if they fall to North Carolina and see an early exit in the ACC Tournament, the Blue Devils may be usurped on the top seed line because of the lack of Quad 1 success.
The East Region
Should current projections hold and Duke earns a spot as the No. 1 seed in the East, it would play the opening weekend in Raleigh before heading up to Newark for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and NCAA’s Andy Katz have both published bracket projections that give a sense of what the Blue Devils’ path through this region to the Final Four might look like.
Jumping ahead to a potential Elite Eight matchup, Lunardi’s predicted No. 2 seed is Alabama. Although the Tide are sliding — they have lost three of the last five — they remain lethal thanks to a No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency paired with the No. 1 adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. Playing at such a high pace with an emphasis on shooting the three in transition makes Nate Oats’ team capable of beating any team if it gets hot. Regardless, every No. 2 seed should look dangerous — one like Alabama with a clear vulnerability in its No. 35 adjusted defensive rating, per BartTorvik, could be advantageous for this year’s Duke squad and its elite transition defense. Other potential opponents on Lunardi’s two-seed line are Michigan State, Texas Tech and Tennessee.
Katz and Lunardi both agreed on the Blue Devils’ likely second round opponents. Vanderbilt is the East’s projected No. 8 seed with UConn the projected No. 9 seed. Neither look like ideal early-round matchups — Vanderbilt has been something of a giant slayer with headlining wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, and UConn, though a bit disappointing this year, still has two-time national champion Dan Hurley at the helm.
The final major point in the region is on the No. 3-seed line: Katz put St. John’s in the East while Lunardi has Iowa State. Rick Pitino has brought the Red Storm back to the forefront of college basketball, winning the Big East regular-season title and commanding the nation’s No. 2 team in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The team based in Queens, N.Y., is also one of few schools likely to draw more fans into Newark than Duke. Though only 3-4 in Quad 1 opportunities, St. John’s is poised to be one of the stronger No. 3 seeds in the field.
Selection Sunday will be March 16 at 6 p.m.
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